SBM Intelligence, a leading research and risk consultancy firm in Nigeria, has announced the release of the updated version of its “Africa Country Instability Risk Index” (Aciri), a vital resource for assessing political, economic and social instability across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Building on last year’s report, the Africa Country Instability Risk Index provides a framework for assessing the risk of coups d’état using factors such as ethnic tension, the country’s history of coups, dominant ethnic groups, economic concentration, ageing leaders, and mono-product, bi-product, or multi-product economies.
The framework uses macro risk indicators grouped into Leadership and Governance (with a 40% weighting), Economy (30%), Geopolitics (15%), and History (15%) to rank and score countries. Based on each country’s score, they are ranked in categories: Red Watch (70 & above), Critical (60-69), Warning (50-59), Vulnerable (40-49), Stable (30-39), and Safe (Below 30).
Higher scores indicate heightened political risk to businesses, while lower scores show how stable a country is.
The index analysed 48 countries in West, Central, East, and Southern Africa, excluding North Africa to maintain the study’s sub-Saharan focus.
The report’s findings reveal that of the 48 countries analysed, 31 reported improved performance, while the rest deteriorated compared to the previous year’s index.
Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo, and Madagascar showed the most significant gains, whereas Botswana, Seychelles, Nigeria, Namibia, and Zimbabwe experienced the largest setbacks.
Southern Africa remained the most stable region for the second consecutive year, while Central Africa ranked the least stable, with a score change of 6.78, performing worse than East and West.
Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an average stability score of 45.4% in 2024, an improvement from 47.7% in 2023.
The Aciri offers actionable insights for diverse stakeholders. Governments can use it to identify and address risks to political stability.
Transnational corporations can leverage it to identify countries with high political instability risk and formulate contingency plans to safeguard their investments.
Non-governmental organisations, think tanks and development agencies can also leverage the report to enhance strategies for fostering political stability and economic growth.
Through rigorous research and a user-friendly presentation, the Aciri provides insight into the challenges and opportunities in each region within Sub-Saharan Africa. It offers recommendations to guide stakeholders in mitigating risks, maximising opportunities, and making informed decisions about investing and operating in the region.
