Nigerian Stock Market to Rebound in H2 2026 Despite Economic, Political Risks – Expert

BY NKECHI NAECHE-ESEZOBOR—Nigeria’s stock market is expected to record a mild recovery in the second half of 2026, driven by stronger corporate earnings, improving macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained economic reforms, despite persistent economic and political risks, Chief Executive Officer of HighCap Securities Limited, David Adonri, has said.

Adonri made the projection while speaking at the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) Mid-Year 2026 Capital Market Review and Outlook held in Lagos.

According to him, the equities market is poised to gradually regain momentum as investors respond to improving corporate performance, stronger economic indicators and increasing confidence in the country’s reform agenda.

He, however, cautioned that high inflation, elevated interest rates, political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections, insecurity, simultaneous capital-raising exercises by companies and the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region remain key downside risks that could affect market performance in the months ahead.

Adonri explained that the recent correction on the Nigerian Exchange should not be viewed as a sign of weakening market fundamentals but rather as a normal phase of portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors following the strong rally triggered by ongoing economic reforms.

“The current market correction is a result of institutional investors repositioning their portfolios and not an indication of a breakdown in market fundamentals,” he said.

He expressed optimism that stronger corporate fundamentals and improved earnings prospects across listed companies would support a gradual recovery in the equities market during the second half of the year.

While projecting that the current high interest rate environment is likely to persist, Adonri said Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) are expected to realign with their underlying fundamentals as market conditions improve.

He also noted that the activation of the commercial papers and derivatives markets would deepen Nigeria’s capital market, broaden investment opportunities and enhance market liquidity.

Adonri identified the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange as one of the most significant developments expected in the coming months, describing it as a potential game changer capable of transforming the size, depth and attractiveness of Nigeria’s capital market.

Reviewing the country’s macroeconomic outlook, he said Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms continue to receive positive recognition from international institutions.

According to him, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged that the reforms are producing improved macroeconomic outcomes, while leading global credit rating agencies have upgraded or affirmed Nigeria’s sovereign credit ratings.

He noted that S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ with a stable outlook in May 2026. Fitch Ratings also affirmed the country’s ‘B’ rating with a stable outlook, while Moody’s upgraded Nigeria’s rating to ‘B3’ from ‘Caa1’.

Adonri said the improved ratings reflect growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic management, supported by greater foreign exchange stability, rising external reserves and increased crude oil production.

He added that the World Bank and IMF project Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forecasts a stronger growth rate of 4.49 per cent.

According to him, higher crude oil production, expanding domestic refining capacity, improving foreign reserves and a relatively stable and appreciating naira are expected to support investor confidence and economic growth.

Despite the positive outlook, Adonri stressed that sustained macroeconomic stability and policy consistency remain essential to preserving investor confidence and ensuring long-term growth in the capital market.

He expressed confidence that once institutional investors complete their portfolio adjustments and economic reforms continue to gain traction, the Nigerian stock market will gradually return to a stronger growth trajectory in the second half of 2026.