October 15, 2021/Cordros Report
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In line with our expectation, Nigeria’s headline inflation decelerated for the sixth consecutive month to 16.63% y/y in September 2021 (August: 17.01% y/y). The outturn is 14bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (16.49% y/y) with the largest deviation stemming from the food basket. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 13bps to 1.15%.
Food inflation slowed by 73bps to 19.57% y/y in September 2021 (August: 20.30% y/y). Notably, the highest price increases were recorded in Oils and fats, Bread and cereals, Food products, Fish, Coffee, tea and cocoa, Potatoes, yam and other tuber and Milk, cheese and egg. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased by 1.26% in September (August: 1.06% m/m).
On the other hand, core inflation increased by 33bps to 13.74% y/y (August: 13.41% y/y). Pressures were most significant in the prices of Gas, Household textile, Garments, Motor car, Game of chance, Major household appliances whether electric or not, Passenger transport by air, Hospital services, Other services in respect personal transport equipment, Wine, Clothing materials, Other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, Non-durable household goods. Compared to the previous month, the core index increased by 47bps to 1.24% m/m in September.
