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Headline Inflation Tapered by 18 Bps to 11.22% Y/Y in June

July 15, 2019/Cordros Report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just published the June 2019 inflation report, showing that Nigeria’s headline consumer price (CPI) index tapered after two consecutive months of increase. Specifically, headline inflation was 11.22% y/y in June, declining from 11.40% y/y in May. The reading is 10 bps higher than our estimate but 20 bps lower than Bloomberg consensus average estimate. On a month-on-month basis, the headline index rose at a slower pace of1.07% (May 2019: 1.11%).

Food inflation rose by 13.56% y/y in the review period, a slower increase relative to 13.79% y/y recorded in May. Notably, the highest increases were recorded in the prices of Bread and cereals, Meat, Oils and fats, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Fish, Vegetables and fruits. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased at a slower pace by 1.36%, relative to the 1.41% recorded in the previous month.

Core also inflation tapered to 8.84% y/y (v 8.84% y/y (vs. 9.03% in May).The highest increases were recorded in the prices of Medical and hospital services, Cleaning, Repair and hire of clothing, Repair and hire of footwear, Repair of household appliances, Actual and imputed rentals for housing, Major household appliances whether electronic or not, and Tobacco. On a m/m basis, the core index increased by 0.85%, 10 bps higher than 0.75% reported in May. To 2dp

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