April 16, 2019/Cordros Report
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just published the March 2019 inflation report, showing that Nigeria’s headline consumer price (CPI) index moderated for the third straight months. Specifically, headline inflation was 11.25% y/y in March, declining from 11.31% y/y in February. The reading came just a notch above our forecast of 11.22% y/y (3 bps deviation), but 6 bps below Bloomberg compiled average estimate of 11.31% y/y. On a month-on-month basis, the headline index rose faster by 0.79%, against 0.73% in prior month.
Food inflation rose by 13.45% y/y in the review period, slightly lower than the 13.47% y/y recorded in February. Notably, the highest increases were recorded in the prices of Fish, Bread and cereals, Vegetables, Meat, fish, Fruits, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, oils and fats, soft drinks. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased faster by 0.88%, relative to the 0.82% recorded in the previous month.
Core inflation tapered to 9.5% y/y (vs. 9.8% in February). The highest increase were recorded in the prices of domestic services and household services, tobacco, major household appliances whether electronic or not, Medical and Dental services, rent for housing, domestic and house hold services. On m/m basis, the core index decreased by 0.53%, 12 bps lower than 0.65% reported in February.