NKECHI NAECHE-ESEZOBOR—(BANGKOK, Thailand) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept its 2026 global growth forecast at 3.1% and slightly raised its outlook for next year to 3.4%, even as it flags mounting risks from artificial intelligence (AI) expectations, sovereign debt stress and high food and fuel prices.
The projections are in the World Economic Outlook, one of two flagship reports on the global economy and financial markets.
The IMF describes growth as “lackluster” by historical standards and says income gaps are likely to widen. It warns that if expectations for AI are not met, investment and financial markets could worsen significantly.
“The expectation that AI will keep the economy afloat is unrealistic,” added LeCompte. “If AI fails to strengthen the economy and help developing countries, the crises facing most of the world will become worse.”
The companion report, the Global Financial Stability Report, identifies AI investment risks, country debt challenges and cyber threats as the most serious threats to financial market stability.
“The report asserts that if expectations on economic growth from artificial intelligence are too optimistic, financial markets will be hurt and access to loans and aid for developing countries will be a casualty,” LeCompte shared.
Addressing the ongoing turmoil in sovereign debt markets, the report says the rising rates investors charge governments to borrow are a major risk to the current economy and could lead to higher debts for countries.
“High debts plus increasing inflation and food and fuel prices translate to real economic challenges that most of us are experiencing,” LeCompte explained.
