Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Spikes 16.47% Year-on-Year in January 2021 0.17% Higher Than December 2020-NBS

February 16, 2021/NBS

All Item Index

Image Credit: NBS

The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 16.47 percent (year-on-year) in January 2021. This is 0.71 percent points higher than the rate recorded in December 2020 (15.75 percent).

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.49 percent in January 2021. This is 0.12 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in December 2020 (1.61 percent).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending January 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 13.62 percent, representing a 0.37 percentage point increase over 13.25 percent recorded in December 2020.

The urban inflation rate increased by 17.03 percent (year-on-year) in January 2021 from 16.33 percent recorded in December 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.92 percent in January 2021 from 15.20 percent in December 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.52 percent in January 2021, down by 0.13 percentage points when compared to the rate recorded in December 2020, while the rural index also rose by 1.46 percent in January 2021, down by 0.12 compared to the rate that was recorded in December 2020 (1.58 percent).

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index was 14.23 percent in January 2021. This is higher than the 13.86 percent reported in December 2020, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2021 was 13.04 percent compared to 12.67 percent recorded in December 2020.

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Food Index 

The composite food index rose by 20.57 percent in January 2021 compared to 19.56 percent in December 2020.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fruits, Vegetable, Fish and Oils and Fats.

On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.83 percent in January 2021, down by 0.22 percent points from 2.05 percent recorded in December 2020.  

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending January 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 16.66  percent, 0.49  percent points higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2020 (16.17 percent).

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All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.85 percent in January 2021, up by 0.48 percent when compared with 11.37 percent recorded in December 2020.

On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.26 percent in January 2021. This was up by 0.16 percent when compared with 1.10 percent recorded in December 2020.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Paramedical services, Repair of furniture, Vehicle spare parts, Motor cars, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 10.52 percent for the twelve-month period ending January 2021. This was 0.21 percent points higher than 10.31 percent recorded in December 2020.

State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.  

All Items Inflation

In January 2021, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kogi (21.38%), Oyo (20.17%) and Bauchi (19.52%), while Kwara (13.96%), Abuja (12.96%) and Cross River (12.22%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis however, January 2021 all items inflation was highest in Oyo (4.28%), Ebonyi (3.95%) and Lagos (3.33%), while Abuja, Edo and Cross River recorded price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

Food Inflation

In January 2021, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kogi (26.64%), Oyo (23.69%) and River (23.49%), while Ondo (17.20%), Abuja  (16.73%) and Bauchi (16.37%) recorded the slowest rise.

On month on month basis however, January 2021 food inflation was highest in Oyo (4.47%), Lagos (3.86%) and River (3.11%), while Akwa Ibom (0.25%) and Bayelsa (0.13%) recorded the slowest rise with Edo recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate). 

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