April 15, 2021/Cordros Update
Nigeria’s headline inflation maintained its uptrend, rising by 82bps to 18.17% y/y in March 2021 (February: 17.33% y/y), the highest level since January 2017 (18.72% y/y). The outturn is 7bps lower than our estimate of 18.24% y/y, with the deviation coming from the core basket. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased marginally by 2bps to 1.56%.
Food inflation rose faster by 116bps to 22.95% y/y in March 2021 (February: 21.79% y/y). Notably, the highest price increases were recorded in Bread and cereals, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Meat, Vegetable, Fish, Oils and fats and fruits. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose by 1.90% (February: 1.89%).
Similarly, core inflation was up by 29bps to 12.67% y/y. Pressures were most significant in the prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Passenger transport by road, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Paramedical services, Vehicle spare parts, Dental services, Motor cars, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, and Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment. On a month-on-month basis, the core index moderated by 15bps to 1.06% (February: 1.21%).
