December 10, 2018/Cordros Report
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s Q3-18 GDP figure, showing that the economy grew for the sixth consecutive quarter, with real GDP growing by 1.81% y/y (vs. 1.50% y/y in the previous quarter and 1.14% y/y in Q3-2017). The growth estimate came in line with our forecast (Cordros estimates: 1.83%), and 17 bps lower than Bloomberg’s compiled average estimate of 1.98%.
A quick glance at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector contracted by 2.91% (Q3 2017: +23.03%, Q2 2018: -3.95%). The NBS estimated crude oil production during the period at 1.96mb/d, 0.6mb/d lower than the 2.02mb/d reported in Q3-17. The sector contributed 9.38% to total GDP (vs. 8.55% and 9.84% in Q2-18 and the corresponding quarter of 2017 respectively) during the review period.
Output in the non-oil sector grew by 2.32% y/y in Q3-18, 27 bps higher than the rate recorded in Q2-18, and 310 bps higher when compared to the growth rate achieved a year ago. The non-oil sector contributed 90.62% to total GDP (vs. 91.45% and 90.16% in Q2-18 and Q2-17 respectively).
A breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP shows that Services expanded by 2.64% y/y (vs. 2.12 % y/y in Q2-18 and -2.66 y/y in Q3-17). Also, Agriculture grew by 1.91% y/y, 72 bps and 115 bps lower than growth rates recorded in Q2-18 and Q3-17 respectively. Manufacturing grew by 1.92% y/y – 124 bps lower and 477 bps higher than growth rates recorded in Q2-18 and Q3-17 respectively.
In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 48.79%, 21.97 %, and 29.25 % of overall output growth.