The updated forecast was revealed during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings held in Washington, D.C., where officials cautioned that energy and supply chain disruptions caused by the war are weakening economic recovery across the region.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that the downgrade highlights the wider challenges confronting countries that rely heavily on imported energy.

“For Sub-Saharan Africa, we are observing a downward revision in growth and a rise in inflation in several countries within the region,” Gourinchas stated. “The effects are largely consistent with what we are witnessing globally, particularly for nations that depend on energy imports.”

He further noted that the Fund is actively engaging with several countries to assess their needs under the current circumstances and is working closely with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank to address disruptions in the energy market.

Also speaking on the issue, Denz Igan, Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, said the 0.3 percentage point reduction reflects multiple economic pressures.

“Higher costs of fuel and fertilizer caused by the war, along with increased shipping expenses, are expected to slow non-oil economic activities in Nigeria,” Igan said. “Although rising oil prices provide some support, the overall outlook points to slower growth in 2026, with a projected improvement in 2027.”

The IMF also forecasts that median inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 5 percent in 2026, driven by elevated oil and fertilizer prices, possible fuel supply shortages, and rising operational costs.

Regarding Nigeria, she emphasized that maintaining a tight monetary policy will be essential for meeting the inflation target set by the central bank.

Additionally, the IMF pointed out that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa declined by 16 to 20 percent in 2025, removing an important financial cushion at a time when commodity and shipping costs are surging.

The post IMF Revises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast Downward to 4.1% appeared first on Business Today NG.

The projection is contained in the fund’s latest World  Economic Outlook (WEO) update for January released on Monday.

The report said that the forecast marked a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 WEO.

According to the report, this steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces.

“Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions.”

The report also cited monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector.”

It said that global headline inflation was expected to decline from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.

“The inflation projections are also broadly unchanged from those in October and envisage inflation returning to target more gradually in the United States than in other large economies.”

The report said that among advanced economies, growth was projected to be 1.8 per cent in 2026 and 1.7 per cent in 2027.

For emerging markets and developing economies, it projected growth to continue to hover just above 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 2027.

It projected growth in the Middle East and Central Asia to accelerate from 3.7 per cent in 2025 to 3.9 per cent in 2026.

The report projected 4.0 per cent accelerated growth in 2027, supported by higher oil output, resilient local demand and ongoing reforms.

The report said that for Sub-Saharan Africa, growth was expected to also accelerate from 4.4 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027.

It said the growth in the region would be supported by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts in key economies.

For Nigeria, the report said growth was projected at 4.4 per cent in 2026 and would drop to 4.1 per cent  in 2027.

“In Latin America and the Caribbean,  growth is expected to moderate to 2.2 per cent in 2026 and bounce to 2.7 per cent in 2027 as countries in the region approach potential from different cyclical positions.

“In emerging and developing Europe , a sharp slowdown in 2025 to a growth rate of 2.0 per cent is expected to reverse.

“Economies in the region will expand at an average rate of 2.3 per cent in 2026 and 2.4 per cent in 2027,” it said.

The report said that risks to the outlook remained tilted to the downside, which were revaluation of technology expectations and escalation of geopolitical tensions.

On the upside, the report said that activity could be further lifted by AI-related investment and eventually transform into sustainable growth if faster AI adoption translates into strong  productivity gains and increased business dynamism.

“Activity could also be supported by a sustained easing in trade tensions.”

The reports recommended that policymakers should restore fiscal buffers, preserve price and financial stability, reduce uncertainty, and implement structural reforms without further delay.

The post IMF Projects Global Growth at 3.3% in 2026, 3.2% in 2027 appeared first on Business Today NG.

Mr. Katz currently serves as Chief of Staff to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the United States Department of the Treasury. He is the principal advisor to the Secretary on a wide range of domestic and international matters. Mr. Katz was instrumental in developing the U.S. government’s innovative economic partnership with Ukraine and has been central to the U.S. government’s international negotiations, including with China. Mr. Katz has a long association with the Treasury Department that stretches more than a decade. In previous rounds of service at Treasury, he served as a Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs, Counselor to the Assistant Secretary for International Markets, and a policy advisor in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. During this time, Mr. Katz also represented the United States at international fora, including the Financial Stability Board.

In addition to his work at the Treasury, Mr. Katz spent several years in the private sector. He was a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute focusing on central banking, international economic issues, and economic statecraft. Previously, he worked at a global macro hedge fund, as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs, and as an advisor to the Commander of U.S. forces in Kabul, Afghanistan. Mr. Katz received a Bachelor of Arts from Yale University and a Juris Doctor magna cum laude from New York University School of Law.

In announcing her decision, Ms. Georgieva said: “Dan is known to his colleagues for his passion for policy work, particularly the intersection of economic policy and international relations. He is highly respected for his solution-oriented approach, collaborative leadership style, and willingness to bring fresh perspectives to difficult issues.”

Mr. Katz said: “I am deeply honored to be proposed for this position at the IMF. The IMF plays an indispensable role at the heart of the international monetary system. I very much look forward to deepening my engagement with the Fund, its staff and the membership.”

In concluding, Ms. Georgieva said: “Dan is a strong believer in the important role of the Fund in helping our member countries ensure economic and financial stability at a time of significant transformations in the global economy. His ability to build relationships with a wide range of interlocutors will be an important asset to the Fund.”

The post IMF, Kristalina Georgieva Proposes Appointment Of Daniel Katz As First DMD appeared first on Business Today NG.

President Tinubu stated this on Wednesday night in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, when the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, paid him a courtesy call on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders’ Summit.

While acknowledging that the reforms had weakened Nigerians’ purchasing power, President Tinubu said his administration will continue to provide social safety nets to cushion the unintended consequences.

Congratulating the IMF Chief on her election for a second term in office, President Tinubu appreciated her support in implementing the reforms, calling for more institutional backing for stability and sustainable growth.

“We have started seeing positive results from our reforms, and the Nigerian people now understand the need for them, but we have to reduce the hardship that has resulted from the implementation.

He emphasised the critical need for educational access.

“We have too many children out of school, and we know that education is a way out of hunger and poverty. That is why we are designing ways and incentives to keep these children in school, and we need your support for these kids who want to stay in school,” he told the IMF chief.

President Tinubu stressed that substantial resources must be invested to stimulate the much-needed infrastructural development in the country.

The President further noted that Nigeria is working on tax reforms to stimulate the economy further.

“We are engaging stakeholders and sensitising Nigerians to expand the economy’s tax base for inclusive developmental growth. We are doing this without necessarily increasing the taxes on our people who have already given a lot. We will require your support on this.”

In her remarks, the Managing Director, who expressed a desire to visit Nigeria, commended the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms and their positive indicators.

She assured the President of further support in diversifying the Nigerian economy.

She specifically lauded the social investment programmes as a way of cushioning the effects on the most vulnerable and promised the assistance of the body in this regard.

Contrary to popular perception, she said that the IMF is focused on developing vulnerable societies and devoting substantial resources to emerging economies.

The managing director expressed the Fund’s readiness to offer technical support for the budgeting process, adding that it will assist Nigeria in achieving the best possible results from loans.

Georgieva said the world had suffered some shocks from the pandemic that caused damage to world economies. Over the last two years, the IMF has injected about $1 trillion into the world economy.

While the developed countries managed the shocks better, the developing nations did not do so, she noted.

She said the IMF is working with developing countries to build resilient institutions to better manage future global economic shocks.

She stressed that it is the right of every country to benefit from the Fund after a critical analysis of its priorities.

The IMF Managing Director informed President Tinubu that the organisation’s Executive Board has approved the 3rd Chair for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), enhancing the African voice.

She congratulated Nigeria on hosting the IMF’s African Caucus meeting in Abuja in August.

Georgieva also advocated deepening regional economic ties, assuring the IMF is ready to support this process.

The post We Shall Continue To Prioritise Social Investment Programmes, Tinubu Tells IMF appeared first on Business Today NG.

The new government inherited a difficult economic situation marked by low growth, low revenue collection, accelerating inflation, and external imbalances built up over years.

Addressing food insecurity is the immediate priority. The recent approval of a well-targeted and effective social protection system is an important step toward addressing this and implementation will be crucial.

The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to further tighten monetary policy will help contain inflation and pressures on the naira.

An International Monetary Fund team, led by Axel Schimmelpfennig, IMF mission chief for Nigeria, visited Lagos and Abuja February 12–23, 2024, to hold discussions for the 2024 Article IV Consultations with Nigeria. The team met with Minister of Finance Edun, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Cardoso, senior government and central bank officials, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of the Environment, as well as representatives from sub-nationals, the private sector and civil society. At the end of the visit, Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, issued the following statement:

“Nigeria’s economic outlook is challenging. Economic growth strengthened in the fourth quarter, with GDP growth reaching 2.8 percent in 2023. This falls slightly short of population growth dynamics. Improved oil production and an expected better harvest in the second half of the year are positive for 2024 GDP growth, which is projected to reach 3.2 percent, although high inflation, naira weakness, and policy tightening will provide headwinds.

“With about 8 percent of Nigerians deemed food insecure, addressing rising food insecurity is the immediate policy priority. In this regard, staff welcomed the authorities’ approval of an effective and well-targeted social protection system. The team also welcomed the government’s release of grains, seeds, and fertilizers, as well as Nigeria’s introduction of dry-season farming.

“Recent improvements in revenue collection and oil production are encouraging. Nigeria’s low revenue mobilization constrains the government’s ability to respond to shocks and to promote long-term development. Non-oil revenue collection improved by 0.8 percent of GDP in 2023, helped by naira depreciation. Oil production reached 1.65 million barrels per day in January as the result of enhanced security. The capping of fuel pump prices and electricity tariffs below cost recovery could have a fiscal cost of up to 3 percent of GDP in 2024.

“The recently approved targeted social safety net program that will provide cash transfers to vulnerable households needs to be fully implemented before the government can address costly, implicit fuel and electricity subsidies in a manner that will ensure low-income households are protected.

“The team welcomed the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to further tighten monetary policy. The MPC increased the policy rate by 400 basis points to 22.75 percent for a total tightening of 1,025 basis points since May 2022. This decision should help contain inflation, which reached 29.9 percent year-on-year in January 2024, and pressures on the naira.”

The post IMF Says Nigeria Tackling Food Insecurity Immediate Priority appeared first on Business Today NG.