The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), outlining Nigeria’s economic outlook, revenue targets, and spending priorities for the next three years.
Briefing journalists after the FEC meeting on Wednesday in Abuja, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said oil price was pegged at $64 per barrel, while the exchange rate assumption for the budget year is ₦1,512/$.
He said while the council set an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, the fiscal planning is based on a cautious 1.8 million bpd.
Bagudu stated the exchange rate projection reflects the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, adding that all the assumptions were drawn from detailed macroeconomic and fiscal analyses by the budget office and its partner agencies.
According to the minister, inflation is projected to average 18 percent in 2026.
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Bagudu said based on the assumptions, the total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 was estimated at N50.74 trillion, to be shared among the three tiers of government.
“From this projection, the federal government is expected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments ₦11.85 trillion,” he said.
“When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including ₦4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue for 2026 is projected at ₦34.33 trillion —representing a ₦6.55 trillion or 16 percent decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.”
The minister said statutory transfers are expected to amount to roughly ₦3 trillion, while debt servicing was projected at ₦10.91 trillion.
He said non-debt recurrent spending — covering personnel costs and overheads — was put at ₦15.27 trillion, while the fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
The MTEF also projected that nominal GDP will reach over ₦690 trillion in 2026 and climb to N890.6 trillion by 2028, with the GDP growth rate projected at 4.6 percent in 2026.
The non-oil GDP is also expected to grow from ₦550.7 trillion in 2026 to ₦871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is estimated to rise from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion over the same period.
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